Ammonium Nitrate Prices, Monitor, Analysis & Demand

North America

The North American Ammonium Nitrate market region prevailed mixed sentiments throughout the Q4 of 2023. The prices increased significantly in the first month of the fourth Quarter. The market was primarily impacted by the following factors. Firstly, increase in the price of essential feedstock Ammonia led to an increase in the production cost of Ammonium Nitrate.

Secondly, the demand for Ammonia and its derivatives including Ammonium Nitrate remained robust in the domestic market, particularly in anticipation of the forthcoming winter planting season, exerting upward pressure on prices. Lastly, the low availability of material within the regional market led to an increased price of ammonia within the country. Further, as the Chinese government curtail its fertilizers exports international consumers particularly Indian players were active in the North American market.

However, in November the market unfolded bearish sentiments and remained stagnant in December. This price dip is attributed to surplus availability of material in the market coupled with lacklustre demand. Persistent challenges at the Panama Canal, a critical global trade route originating in the USA, contributed to this scenario. Further, some shipping companies are opting to bypass the Suez Canal due to concerns about potential rebel attacks, choosing alternative trade routes instead. The limitations at the Panama Canal have compelled certain shippers to reroute exports, including Ammonium Nitrate, through the Suez Canal to access Asian markets. If the constraints at the Suez Canal persist, it may become increasingly challenging for the US to export Ammonium Nitrate, potentially resulting in an oversupply and subsequent reduction in prices. As a consequence of delayed shipments to the international market, there has been an accumulation of Ammonium Nitrate prices inventories within the country. Moreover, the demand for Ammonium Nitrate remained subdued in the United States, coinciding with the conclusion of the peak fertilizer season.

APAC

The Ammonium Nitrate market in the APAC region prevailed mixed sentiments throughout the q4 of 2023. The prices declined in the first of the quarter due to surplus availability of material within the Chinese market. After China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has continued to halt exports of fertilizers there is surplus availability of material in the market. Further, with the autumn season sweeping away demand for Ammonium Nitrate from the end-user fertilizer market remained subdued. However later the prices increased by a significant margin. Increasing price of essential feedstock Ammonia prompted towards higher production cost thus exerting upward cost pressure on Ammonium Nitrate prices. Further, during this period, there was a deficiency in imports from the European Ammonium Nitrate market. The redirection of merchant ships from the Red Sea, prompted by the imminent threat of attacks from Houthi militants off Yemen, resulted in a notable surge in freight charges as many shippers altered their shipping routes. However, demand from the significant downstream fertilizer industry remained subdued, as the peak planting season had concluded.

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Europe

The European Ammonium Nitrate market prevailed downward trajectory throughout the fourth quarter of 2023. This price dip is primarily attributed to surplus availability of the material in the market coupled with lacklustre demand from the prominent downstream user fertilizer industry. At the onset of this quarter Buyers were closely watching nitrogen prices as some speculate prices may drop in the coming months. The next seasonal demand window will open in Spring 2024, so they were in no rush to purchase Ammonium Nitrate at present. However, adverse weather conditions within the region along with heavy rainfall posed to be a potential threat for the crops. This has further dampened the buying enthusiasm of Ammonium Nitrate consumers for Spring 2024. Additionally, trade uncertainties amidst rebel attacks in the Red Sea had caused the traders to opt for alternative trade route. In an effort to avoid strikes by Iran-backed Houthi militants based in Yemen, carriers have already diverted trade over the past several weeks away from the crucial Middle East trade route, which, along with the Suez Canal, connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean. This has created a multiple-front storm for global trade, leading to a surge in European port inventories. The interplay of these factors prompted towards narrowed gap between demand and supply thus supporting the current price dip.

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