Ethanol Prices Trend, Monitor, News, Analytics and Forecast | ChemAnalyst

Written by ChemAnalyst Data  »  Updated on: April 22nd, 2024

Ethanol Prices Trend, Monitor, News, Analytics and Forecast | ChemAnalyst

Ethanol Prices: During the Quarter Ending December 2023

North America:

The North American ethanol market experienced fluctuations in the last quarter of 2023 due to various factors. Despite a generally stable market with moderate supply and demand, upstream corn and energy prices surged, increasing ethanol production costs. Conversely, destocking and lower freight rates led to a slight decrease in prices. Government support, including USDA loans and grants for rural energy development, alongside heightened demand from the biofuel sector, contributed to price hikes. Particularly in the US, significant price shifts characterized a bearish market scenario.

The abundant corn harvest primarily drove the slight price dip, easing upstream pressures in the US market. Globally, increased crop production and consumption, along with greater adoption of distiller's dried grains with soluble, sustained moderate demand. In the US, the latest price for Ethanol 99% FD Houston stood at USD 591/MT.

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In the APAC region, the ethanol market encountered a bearish trend in Q4 2023 due to various factors. Ethanol supply to Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) dropped to 2.27 billion liters, resulting in a moderate to high supply. Rising energy and corn prices, coupled with declining freight rates, influenced market dynamics. Anticipated decreases in sugar cane production and year-end destocking caused corn and ethanol prices to decline. Notably, South Korea experienced significant ethanol price shifts due to increased sugar production and global destocking. With record sugarcane production worldwide and a destocking season, South Korea witnessed declining ethanol prices. Furthermore, a three-year low in corn prices, driven by increased supplies from the US and Brazil, contributed to lower ethanol prices. Compared to the previous year and quarter, the APAC ethanol market saw significant price declines of -31% and -24%, respectively. In South Korea, the current quarter's price for Ethanol 99.5% CFR Ulsan is USD 697/MT.


The European ethanol market in Q4 2023 was influenced by several factors. Year-end destocking led to price drops for corn and ethanol, while decreasing freight rates further supported lower ethanol prices. However, increased energy and corn prices raised production costs. Belgium experienced the most significant price changes, with a downtrend driven by record sugarcane production for the domestic market. The trend for Ethanol FD Antwerp saw a -24% change from the previous quarter and a -43% change from the same quarter last year. The delayed operation of advanced biofuel production led to bankruptcies and reduced investment in biofuel technologies. The latest price for Ethanol FD Antwerp in Belgium for Q4 2023 was USD 683/MT.

South America:

The South American ethanol market remained stable in the last quarter, with moderate supply and low demand. Despite robust biofuel demand, new market entrants kept prices under control with ample production. Brazil, as the largest ethanol producer, experienced price declines due to record sugar production and high domestic inventory. However, Vibra Energia leveraged the energy transition by using ethanol to power cars in Latin America's largest economy. Forecasts predict a bearish market in Brazil, driven by high supply and low demand, with increased corn production and further decreases in freight charges likely to lower prices. The quarter saw a sugarcane crush of 43.09 million metric tons, and any disruptions in harvesting due to adverse weather could affect ethanol supply later. The current quarter's price for Ethanol Anhydrous FOB Santos in Brazil is USD 630/MT.

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